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After a difficult 2020 for oil, could it bounce back in 2021?

The oil price is caught between a short-term recovery and the medium-term prospect of peak oil, as countries ramp up programs to decarbonize by switching power generation sources and banning internal…

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The oil price is caught between a short-term recovery and the medium-term prospect of peak oil, as countries ramp up programs to decarbonize by switching power generation sources and banning internal combustion engines (ICE).

The oil price has been seesawing between vaccine optimism and pandemic pessimism. Yet, it has managed a gradual recovery from its lows last year to around $50 a barrel now.

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Oil price recovers … but outlook remains muted

However, the oil price is nowhere near where most OPEC+ members would like it to be. It’s also not where shale producers need it to be to sustain capital raising for a return to growth.

However, the oil price could arguably have been a lot less. The price owes its current position to stoic management by OPEC+’s leading producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Consumption still hasn’t recovered to a pre-pandemic level. Furthermore, it doesn’t have any prospect of reaching the levels projected for 2021 global consumption this time last year.

Demand destruction

Demand destruction has come from three main areas, the Financial Times notes, none of which are likely to turn around anytime soon.

The first factor is jet fuel. Air travel is severely depressed and is unlikely to fully recover for several years. Current consumption is some 2.5 million barrels per day below pre-pandemic levels.

Meanwhile, the second factor is gasoline and diesel consumption, which will likely recover more quickly. Even so, it will likely not see 2019 levels this year.

The final hit is from a wider loss of industrial activity and lower levels of goods shipped by sea.

On the supply side

The implications on the supply side are potentially even more profound.

The collapse in the oil price has sucked the life out of capital investment. Projects are being postponed, shelved and, ultimately in some cases, producers filing for bankruptcy.

U.S. crude output has fallen from a record 12.3 million b/d in 2019 to 11.3 million b/d this year, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). However, the U.S. remains the world’s largest producer.

The Financial Times suggests the U.S. will fall further to 11.1 million b/d in 2021. Meanwhile, output outside of OPEC will rise by 0.5 million b/d. As a result, that leaves the onus on OPEC and its allies to manage the mismatch between supply and demand in the year ahead. That’s no mean feat, with several wild cards such as Libya, Iran, and Venezuela holding exemptions and having the potential to resume significant increases in supply.

Iran, in particular, could benefit from a potential nuclear refining agreement with the new Biden administration at some point this year, holding the potential for up to 2 million b/d of supply to resume.

Looking ahead

The key to any rise in oil prices this year, even maintenance of the current level, will be how OPEC+ manages output.

The drawn-out pandemic crisis has left them with more than 7 million b/d of crude oil capacity still offline. They were expected to gradually return this output to market in a tapered wind-down of the curtailment starting with 500,000 b/d at today’s meeting. However, that now looks like it will be a longer taper than previously thought in the face of renewed lockdowns and a slow rollout of vaccine programs.

Oil bulls have much about which to be wary.

A renewed bout of price weakness is unlikely. The risk to the upside is limited. The pressure to take advantage of any significant price rise to repair drained budgets balance sheets will be immense this year. The real challenge for OPEC will be holding discipline together if demand picks up and prices firm further. The pressure to open the spigots and raise revenues will be more than some producers can resist.

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Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/agmetalminer/~3/Hk5iPsLOpL0/

Metal

Daily iron ore prices CFR China – March 2, 2021

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Information Provided By:

SteelOrbis Elektronik Pazaryeri A.Ş. (“SteelOrbis”)
19 Mayıs Mahallesi, Atatürk Caddesi
Şeref Yazgan İş Merkezi, No: 72, Kat: 7, D: 18
Kozyatağı – 34736
Istanbul, Turkey

Trade Registration Number : 541892
MERSİS Number : 0470048178400014
Customer Relations Officer : Sinem Alpkaya
Tel : +90 216 468 10 50
Fax : +90 216 386 41 08

This Information Form has been drawn up in order to provide information to the customer (“Customer”) who seeks a free trial on an electronic environment for the purpose of benefiting from the services offered by the SteelOrbis website at “www.steelorbis.com” prior to acceptance of the Membership Contract, and it allows the Customer to gain clear information on the terms and conditions of the membership to be established as well as to review the text of the Contract in question.

The following successive steps shall be taken in order to establish a free trial:

– The Customer selects the “Free Trial” option on the home page at https://www.steelorbis.com.
– The Customer provides all information requested in the “Free Trial Application” form displayed on the screen and confirms it.
– SteelOrbis sends an account activation e-mail to the e-mail address of the Customer provided in the application form.
– The Customer clicks on the activation link sent to his/her e-mail address and activates his/her account. The website Membership Contract is presented to the Customer during the account activation process.

Storage of the Membership Contract:

You can either save the Membership Contract on your computer or make print-outs of it for storage. The Membership Contract accepted and confirmed by the Customer is not kept by SteelOrbis. You can always get access to the standard Membership Contract displayed on the website. However, as amendments may be made to the standard Contract, it may include some variations in comparison with the text approved by you. Accordingly, it may not be possible for you to access on the website the text you originally approved.

Data entry errors:

The information you should provide for membership application and the fields you should fill in are indicated during each step of the operation. You are obliged to provide such information. If you leave the required fields blank, the system will issue a warning. Please fill in all necessary fields. Prior to the completion of the operation, all data entered by you in the previous step will be displayed once more. Please make sure that the information provided by you is accurate and complete before finally confirming the operation; any missing or incorrect information should be completed or corrected. Any amendment or correction on the information provided by you after the confirmation may be performed by means of website logins after the establishment of the membership.

Our confidentiality policy:

Please click here to review our confidentiality policy.

Checkout PrimeXBT
Trade with the Official CFD Partners of AC Milan
Source: https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-prices/steel-prices-market-analyses/scrap-and-raw-materials/daily-iron-ore-prices-cfr-china-_-march-2-2021-1188595.htm

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Metal

Turkey’s CRC prices pushed up further by limited supply, active demand

Turkey-based re-rollers have been enjoying improving demand for their products, specifically in the cold rolled coil (CRC) segment.

Republished by Plato

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Information Provided By:

SteelOrbis Elektronik Pazaryeri A.Ş. (“SteelOrbis”)
19 Mayıs Mahallesi, Atatürk Caddesi
Şeref Yazgan İş Merkezi, No: 72, Kat: 7, D: 18
Kozyatağı – 34736
Istanbul, Turkey

Trade Registration Number : 541892
MERSİS Number : 0470048178400014
Customer Relations Officer : Sinem Alpkaya
Tel : +90 216 468 10 50
Fax : +90 216 386 41 08

This Information Form has been drawn up in order to provide information to the customer (“Customer”) who seeks a free trial on an electronic environment for the purpose of benefiting from the services offered by the SteelOrbis website at “www.steelorbis.com” prior to acceptance of the Membership Contract, and it allows the Customer to gain clear information on the terms and conditions of the membership to be established as well as to review the text of the Contract in question.

The following successive steps shall be taken in order to establish a free trial:

– The Customer selects the “Free Trial” option on the home page at https://www.steelorbis.com.
– The Customer provides all information requested in the “Free Trial Application” form displayed on the screen and confirms it.
– SteelOrbis sends an account activation e-mail to the e-mail address of the Customer provided in the application form.
– The Customer clicks on the activation link sent to his/her e-mail address and activates his/her account. The website Membership Contract is presented to the Customer during the account activation process.

Storage of the Membership Contract:

You can either save the Membership Contract on your computer or make print-outs of it for storage. The Membership Contract accepted and confirmed by the Customer is not kept by SteelOrbis. You can always get access to the standard Membership Contract displayed on the website. However, as amendments may be made to the standard Contract, it may include some variations in comparison with the text approved by you. Accordingly, it may not be possible for you to access on the website the text you originally approved.

Data entry errors:

The information you should provide for membership application and the fields you should fill in are indicated during each step of the operation. You are obliged to provide such information. If you leave the required fields blank, the system will issue a warning. Please fill in all necessary fields. Prior to the completion of the operation, all data entered by you in the previous step will be displayed once more. Please make sure that the information provided by you is accurate and complete before finally confirming the operation; any missing or incorrect information should be completed or corrected. Any amendment or correction on the information provided by you after the confirmation may be performed by means of website logins after the establishment of the membership.

Our confidentiality policy:

Please click here to review our confidentiality policy.

Checkout PrimeXBT
Trade with the Official CFD Partners of AC Milan
Source: https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-prices/steel-prices-market-analyses/flats-and-slab/turkeys-crc-prices-pushed-up-further-by-limited-supply-active-demand-1188561.htm

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Metal

Slab prices in Asia higher, but demand still not strong

Prices for imported slabs in Asia have improved over the past week, supported by the uptrend in the flat steel segment, for HRC in particular.

Republished by Plato

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Information Provided By:

SteelOrbis Elektronik Pazaryeri A.Ş. (“SteelOrbis”)
19 Mayıs Mahallesi, Atatürk Caddesi
Şeref Yazgan İş Merkezi, No: 72, Kat: 7, D: 18
Kozyatağı – 34736
Istanbul, Turkey

Trade Registration Number : 541892
MERSİS Number : 0470048178400014
Customer Relations Officer : Sinem Alpkaya
Tel : +90 216 468 10 50
Fax : +90 216 386 41 08

This Information Form has been drawn up in order to provide information to the customer (“Customer”) who seeks a free trial on an electronic environment for the purpose of benefiting from the services offered by the SteelOrbis website at “www.steelorbis.com” prior to acceptance of the Membership Contract, and it allows the Customer to gain clear information on the terms and conditions of the membership to be established as well as to review the text of the Contract in question.

The following successive steps shall be taken in order to establish a free trial:

– The Customer selects the “Free Trial” option on the home page at https://www.steelorbis.com.
– The Customer provides all information requested in the “Free Trial Application” form displayed on the screen and confirms it.
– SteelOrbis sends an account activation e-mail to the e-mail address of the Customer provided in the application form.
– The Customer clicks on the activation link sent to his/her e-mail address and activates his/her account. The website Membership Contract is presented to the Customer during the account activation process.

Storage of the Membership Contract:

You can either save the Membership Contract on your computer or make print-outs of it for storage. The Membership Contract accepted and confirmed by the Customer is not kept by SteelOrbis. You can always get access to the standard Membership Contract displayed on the website. However, as amendments may be made to the standard Contract, it may include some variations in comparison with the text approved by you. Accordingly, it may not be possible for you to access on the website the text you originally approved.

Data entry errors:

The information you should provide for membership application and the fields you should fill in are indicated during each step of the operation. You are obliged to provide such information. If you leave the required fields blank, the system will issue a warning. Please fill in all necessary fields. Prior to the completion of the operation, all data entered by you in the previous step will be displayed once more. Please make sure that the information provided by you is accurate and complete before finally confirming the operation; any missing or incorrect information should be completed or corrected. Any amendment or correction on the information provided by you after the confirmation may be performed by means of website logins after the establishment of the membership.

Our confidentiality policy:

Please click here to review our confidentiality policy.

Checkout PrimeXBT
Trade with the Official CFD Partners of AC Milan
Source: https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-prices/steel-prices-market-analyses/flats-and-slab/slab-prices-in-asia-higher-but-demand-still-not-strong-1188581.htm

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